Toll patronage, route choice, and due diligence for tolled infrastructure.
Toll modelling asks a harder question than ordinary assignment: not just where traffic goes, but what drivers will pay to go there. Willingness to pay varies by trip purpose, time of day, and value of time, and a model that ignores that will misprice the asset.
Business cases for tolled infrastructure, lender and investor due diligence, toll pricing strategy, and independent review of a third party’s patronage forecast.
We implement logit-based toll choice functions with segmented values of time, calibrate route choice behaviour against observed tolled and untolled movements, and stress-test the forecast rather than presenting a single number. Where uncertainty is material we quantify it — Monte Carlo analysis over the drivers rather than a deterministic point estimate.
Patronage and revenue forecasts by scenario, documented assumptions and elasticities, sensitivity and risk analysis, and a technical report written to withstand lender scrutiny.
Work delivered by Nix Pokasamrith over his career, including engagements held by other organisations. Each entry states the delivery context. These are not commissions held by Transport Modelling.
Recalibrated and operated the WestConnex Road Traffic Model, conducting over 1,500 model runs across two years to refine parameters.
Developed the toll methodology for the BNE model, estimating toll patronage from a logit choice function.
Led strategic toll modelling assessment work for tolled infrastructure in South East Queensland.
Led toll patronage forecasting work for private clients, managing the modelling program and its delivery.
Tell us what you are trying to decide, and we will tell you whether a model is the right way to decide it.